The dual influences of Citrus greening and waning demand for Orange Juice have kept prices firm. One broker reports that offers from source are only against specific inquiries, confirming the lack of availability.
Pricing on both products remains firm as it is still the dry season in Southern China. The diminished harvest caused by this year’s frost is worsening the limited availability that is common to April. May rains may help but prices will still likely stay firm until new oil is available in July.
The Spice Market has reported that prices for fresh have soared this month as reports of poor crops have encouraged speculation. These reports of high prices are echoed by one Chinese dealer who also claims that oil production in May will be half of normal levels and that prices will continue to increase. Current offers confirm that prices are increasing.
With prices for Synthetic Anethole extremely attractive, demand for Natural has diminished. Prices for Oil remain soft and with the Spring harvest just beginning it is not expected to change soon.
Reports that the growing areas are experiencing persistent rains mean that harvesting will be delayed until mid to end May. Prices are expected to stay firm for the near future.
One manufacturer estimates that 2016 production will be 30,860 metric tons, up from 2015’s total of 24,650 metric tons. They also report that stocks held at India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) are half of what was held in September of 2015. A second manufacturer reports that production this year will be 25-30% greater than that of 2015, however, he also believes that little carryover from 2015, a lack of added Synthetic Menthol production, and higher demand in 2016 will contribute to firm prices.
The harvest has begun but at a reported 15 kilos per day, output is small. With preferred quality Oil not usually available until late June/early July prices are expected to stay firm.
The new crop is expected to be done in June/July. With Egyptian Oil at half the price of Chinese, prices for this variety are expected to increase shortly.
An ease in demand for fresh has contributed to soft prices for Oil. Supply currently seems adequate.
Reports state that Guangxi, Guangdong, and Jiangxi provinces have received heavy rains this month. Current pricing for Gum Resin and Turpentine has contributed to unappealing wages for the tappers. Both of these factors could potentially delay and reduce the new crop. Prices are expected to firm.
One dealer advises that with carryover all but consumed, prices should begin to firm. This is likely to continue until the new crop is available in August/September.
Overproduction among manufacturers to keep market share continues to contribute to softer pricing. With Petroleum prices rising, however, this situation may not persist.
This winter’s cold weather in Southern China killed the grasses there, greatly diminishing the Spring crop. With the new crop not available until August/September prices are expected to firm.
With increased availability prices have softened.
The spice market reports that this year’s crop in India was significantly lower than that of last year. It also reports that drought and now heavy rains have caused peppercorns to drop prematurely, negatively affecting Indonesia’s crop. A good crop in Vietnam has offset this, allowing prices to soften.