The most current report from the USDA shows a large improvement over last year’s hurricane damaged crop. Their forecast calls for a total of 77 million boxes, 45 million of Valencia and 32 million of early Midseason and Navel. Prices for terpenes continue to soften.
Orange oil still firm with Terpenes still soft.
On October 11th the USDA released its forecast for the Florida Orange Crop. No surprise, total was dramatically higher than 2017’s which was impacted by the Hurricane season.
Total estimated is 45 million boxes of Valencia and 34 million boxes of early mid-season and Navel.
Orange prices have, nonetheless stayed firm; while there has been an easing of Orange Terpene prices.
The current U.S. Crop, completed in July was estimated by the USDA to be only 45 million boxes, some 30% less than last year’s total. Citrus Greening continues to wreak havoc on groves, having destroyed a large percentage on trees. Brazil’s upcoming crop is forecasted to also be smaller than the last one. With strong demand for fresh oranges in Latin America and decreasing demand for juice, less oil will be available. Prices should be firming.
Brazilians estimate their crop will be some 300 million boxes, down from last year’s crop of 364 million. The USDA maintains Florida’s crop will be only 45 million boxes. Demand for Terpenes is reportedly off, so prices are beginning to ease.
On April 10TH the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasted a total of 45 million boxes to be produced in Florida split between Midseason and Navel (19 million) and Valencia (26 million). This is compared to 69 million boxes from the 2017 crop. Early reports from Brazil also indicate a smaller crop than in 2017, but “official” forecasts won’t be available until May.
The recent cold wave that sent temperatures falling luckily stayed north of the major growing regions, saving whatever crop remained. The USDA reports no change in January crop figures from December.
Prices are stable as we await new crop from Florida.
The Orange Oil situation continues most erratically, balancing between a substantial Brazilian crop versus ever discouraging news from Florida. Substantial activity has caused both the oil and terpenes to have firmed in the past weeks. We are making no predictions.
Several processors and dealers have all forwarded the information that Florida’s crop is off by 50%. Extent of tree damage is still not finalized. Some indications are that Brazil’s production will help fill the shortfall, but time will tell the accuracy of this estimate.
As of this writing, total damage to Florida’s Orange and Grapefruit crops has not been established. Estimates on Orange run anywhere from 30% to 75% of crop damaged while Grapefruit seems to have survived better. It will take some time before actual figures are in though it is safe to say that yield, which was originally greater than last year’s 68 million boxes, will be significantly lower.
Reports continue to advise that the Brazilian crop will be quite large. Good weather conditions have led to a large amount of fruit becoming available. With reports of unfulfilled contracts that need to be satisfied, prices may not soften as much as some might hope. It appears that the major processors have not yet made any offers. Prices have eased slightly.
Reports indicate that the upcoming Brazilian Crop is much larger than last year’s. Prices have started to ease for both in an attempt to reduce high priced inventories before pricing for the new crop is set.
There are indications that this year’s crop in Brazil will be larger than last year’s but volumes at other origins are still limited. Prices for both have eased slightly.
For the moment Orange prices seem to have stabilized, as offers are coming from dealers. With the Brazilian crop due shortly, there might be unfounded optimism that prices will ease.
The USDA’s March estimate for Florida’s 2016/2017 crop was below 70 million boxes, down from last year’s total of 81 million. Brazil is estimating that fresh fruit production for the 2016/2017 crop will be down from 2015/2016, an already low year. Availability of both oil and terpenes is limited and pricing continues to firm.
The limited availability and high prices in this market continue.
The USDA has reported that this year’s Florida crop is the smallest since the early 1960s. This along with limited offers coming out of Brazil have caused prices to continue to firm.
The USDA estimates that total production for their season’s crop is 72 million boxes, almost 10 million less than last year’s total. The continued loss of trees due to greening as well as the advanced age of healthy trees have contributed to the shortfall. Estimates out of Brazil are 210 million boxes, down from a normal harvest of 300 million. Prices continue to rise and there does not appear to be any relief this year.
There seems to be no high that cannot be surpassed for these products. Prices continue to climb as there does not appear to be any relief soon.
Prices have continued to firm on indications that Florida’s crop will be smaller than anticipated. Prices and availability are not expected to ease.
Prices continue to firm for both Oil and Terpenes. This situation is expected to carry over into 2017.
Reports from Brazil indicate that sellers are keeping prices firm. There is no relief from Florida. We expect this to continue until the 2017 crops and are doubtful that prices will ease much even then.
Situation unchanged. Prices are firm and supply is limited.
At the time of writing, several major consumers of Orange Oil & Terpenes had their procurement teams in Brazil negotiating quantities and pricing for the remainder of 2016. Rumors indicate that pricing is still very firm. With offers from Brazil lacking, we expect prices to be firm through the end of 2016.
The April report from the US Department of Agriculture indicated that this year’s crop will be 78 million boxes, some 22% less than in 2014-2015. Reports from Brazil show that major producers are not offering Oil. Prices continue to firm.
The dual influences of Citrus greening and waning demand for Orange Juice have kept prices firm. One broker reports that offers from source are only against specific inquiries, confirming the lack of availability.
The shortage of supply and rising prices for these two ingredients continues. This situation is likely to persist for the time being.
Prices are nearing record levels as we continue to get bad news from growing regions. Florida’s crop, soon to be over, was the smallest in recent history. With Brazil’s crop not due to finish for several months we expect that supply will not cover normal demand.
One US broker has advised that they have not been able to get offers of any type of Oil from Brazil. The situation in Florida is also dismal. We expect prices to continue to rise.
The December report from the US Department of Agriculture has reduced the total production of Oranges to 49.6 million boxes. This is down from 80 million in October, and 74 million in November. Reports from Brazil state that the new crop will be 220 million boxes, down from last year’s total of 264 million. In line with this deterioration, prices on Oil and Terpenes continue their dizzying climb.
The Department of Agriculture has lowered its monthly projection for the 2015-16 Florida crop from 80 million boxes of Valencia and non-Valencia to 74 million boxes. This puts the total at 75% of last year’s already smaller than usual crop. As reports from Brazil continue to reduce crop estimates, there are currently no offers from major Brazilian processors. Prices continue to firm and there are expectations that they will rise beyond historical highs.
The fact that several major Brazilian suppliers did not participate in this year’s IFEAT conference is a sign of the state of this market. Offers are limited and reports indicate that offered Oil tests at 0.8% aldehyde content. Pricing for Oil and Terpenes continues to firm.