Brazilian Citrus Forecast Q4 2024
Fundecitrus released its latest orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt in early December, indicating total orange production is now projected at 223.14 million boxes. This represents a 3.4% increase compared to May 2024 estimates, though the most recent bloom was not without complications.
This year, Brazil experienced an atypical emission of the fourth bloom, which occurred extremely late into the season and resulted in much smaller orange fruits. Due to the delayed bloom, many oranges were harvested during their early developmental stages – Fundecitrus compared many of these fruits to the size of a coffee bean. There was also a large quantity of flowers remaining in the trees when these oranges were counted and harvested, making it very difficult to estimate the total quantity of fruit in previous forecasts.
Brazil is now in the midst of its rainy season after enduring more than 11 months of drought. Rainfall patterns began to shift in October 2024 and have remained historically above average since, providing crucial recovery from the enduring dryness. While the rains have helped boost growth rates of citrus fruits within the region, they arrived too late to meaningfully contribute to the most recent orange harvest, as over 96% of orange fruits were already harvested before the rains began.
Moving forward, Fundecitrus expects the average fruit weight of upcoming seasons to increase as the rains continue to alleviate the effects of the past drought. However, if fruits continue to be harvested at an accelerated rate and are not given time to fully develop, this may offset the gains provided by increased fruit size.
See all info of:
