Orange Oil Midseason

The latest Fundecitrus report indicates total orange production in Brazil has increased 3.4% since the previous forecast in September. The productivity of this season was especially difficult to estimate due to the atypical emission of the fourth bloom, which was extremely late, resulting in some fruits being harvested while they were still in the extremely early stages of development.

Rainfall in Brazil has normalized after 11 consecutive months of drought, and average fruit sizes are expected to increase as the region moves into its next harvest season. However, if citrus fruits continue to be harvested at early stages of development, this may offset some of the positive impact provided by recent rains.

The market for Orange Oil Midseason and Orange Oil Valencia is trending upwards.

Brazil’s latest Fundecitrus report forecasts an orange harvest of approximately 215.78 million boxes. This is the smallest Brazilian harvest in decades, with extreme heat and drought conditions affecting the overall quality of orange fruits throughout important growing regions. Aldehyde output levels in Brazil are expected to be lower than average as well, now estimated at 0.8-0.9% for newly processed orange oil.

Prices for orange oil have the potential to slightly soften over the next few months as the market for orange terpenes continues to rise.

Orange growers in Brazil estimate a 24.36% reduction in productivity when compared to the previous orange season. This decline in productivity is attributed to less rainfall, higher temperatures, and the continued threat of citrus greening within key producing regions. Recent blooms have also occurred during the rainy season of São Paulo, causing blossom-to-end-rot and increasing fruit droppage rates. These issues, combined with an overall lack of availability from alternate sourcing locations, has caused issues for price stability within the global orange market.

Mexico is estimated to produce approximately 5 million metric tons of orange fruit in the 2023/2024 season, which is a sizeable increase compared to previous seasons. This boost in productivity comes at a crucial time in the global orange market, as Brazil’s productivity has been hit hard by a confluence of weather and citrus greening issues. Weather plays a key role within the Mexican orange market – the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season will determine the long-term stability of recent orange production improvements, as strong storms have the potential to uproot trees and destroy infrastructure.